By William Boardman
posted
Jul 18, 2012
Randy Brock, Republican candidate for Governor of Vermont,
probably didn't mean it to come out this way, but his successful
Friday fundraising pitch that focused on Republican Governors turns
out to be a boost for current Vermont Governor, Democrat Peter
Shumlin. Or it would be if anyone paid close attention to
reality.
At the center of Brock's pitch is that "a recent study showed
that of the 17 states that elected Republican governors in 2010,
every single one has reduced its unemployment rate." Brock
doesn't identify this "study," but it appears to be an avowedly
partisan, two-page report from the late Andrew Breitbart's
website.
The Breitbart website links to a self-identified Tea Party site
on Examiner.com, where most anyone can post most anything. As
it turns out, the Examiner.com report is somewhat longer but just
as partisan as Breitbart's, even though it incluses a sampling of
states with Democratic governors that Brock, like Breitbart,
omits.
Not that the level of intellectual honesty goes up much as a
result, since both postings rely on the same skewed reference point
- governors elected in 2010, of whom there were 25, or half of all
governors, which would tend to prove what? If you took ALL the
governors, you'd find that the national unemployment rate has been
dropping since 2010 and almost every single state has reduced
unemployment. The sole exception is New York, where the
unemployment rate has increased from 8.1% to 8.6% under a Democrat
elected in 2010.
In other words, Brock's highly selective sample of 2010
governors is producing results similar to every other governor but
one. But that wasn't Brock's point.
Brock starts his pitch suggesting that, "If you want to be
successful, do what successful people do." Then he argues that that
advice means that Vermont "should follow the lead of what other
successful states have done and elect a Republican governor."
What's missing in this logic? Michael Durwin, a professional in
branding and marketing, commented on the Breitbart posting: "It's
missing the fact that on average, Republican states have a slower
decline [in unemployment] than Democratic states with a few very
notable exceptions."
Clarifying his point, Durwin added: "While Kansas and
Michigan have no doubt had miraculous turnarounds, they leave out
the fact that Massachusetts has had a 1.6% decrease in
unemployment, Vermont's rate was only at 6%, whereas Nevada is at
11.6% even with the drop, California is at 10.8%, Georgia is 8.9%,
Kentucky and Arizona are at 8.2%, South Carolina is at 9.1%.
States with Republican governors have the worst unemployment (as
well as fewest insured, highest in poverty) and with the exception
of those few standouts have had, on average, less job growth than
the national average… The real numbers from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics can be found at www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstch.htm
Brock doesn't talk about specific states, but if he did, using
the Bureau of Labor Statistics, he'd have to report that
Vermont's unemployment rate of 4.6% in May 2012 was lower than all
but one of the class of 2010 Republican-governed states he suggests
emulating. The exception is South Dakota, which has an unemployment
rate of 4.3% and an oil boom going on nearby.
Among Brock's most admired states, Nevada's 11.6% unemployment
rate is more than twice Vermont's, and South Carolina is close at
9.1%, while Michigan, Florida, and Georgia each has 8% unemployment
or more.
Vermont was one of eight states that elected a Democrat in 2010,
the magic election that inspired Brock to repeat the old saying,
"If you want to be successful, do what successful people do."
In the terms Brock lays out, the Vermont governor has been
successful, not that his opponent intends to imitate him.
Referring to the current governor's effort to achieve universal
health care for Vermonters, Brock's campaign promise is that "I
will repeal Governor Shumlin's Titanic Care and grow jobs," which
manages to be both a scare tactic and quite possibly an
oxymoron.
Whatever - it worked, and early Friday evening, the Brock campaign
posted this celebratory comment: "On Monday, we launched our Repeal
Titanic Care Money Bomb. And in five short days, Vermonters rallied
behind our campaign, and we raised an astounding $40,000!"
