By Guy Page, communications director, Vermont Energy Partnership
posted
Feb 20, 2013
How many in-state, renewable power plants would it take to
generate five percent of all energy used in the state?
This isn't just an academic question for energy policy wonks.
The State of Vermont has hitched its wagon to the star of 90
percent renewable power by 2050, and is pulling mighty hard to
build more wind turbines, solar farms, and other renewable power
generators. And some Vermonters are pushing back just as
hard.
There's no lack of spirited debate, but sometimes it's hard to
find good, solid facts. On Feb. 7, the State of Vermont's
Director of Energy Policy and Planning, Dr. Asa Hopkins, performed
and important and very informative public service as he addressed
the Vermont Energy Generation Siting Policy Commission at a public
hearing in Montpelier. Using "just the facts, ma'am" tone and
detail, Dr. Hopkins described what a five percent increase in
Vermont - generated renewable electric power would look like.
Hopkins emphasized that there's nothing magic about five
percent. It's just one intermediate step from the 23 percent
renewable energy level of 2010 to the 90 percent goal of 2050. He
also clarified that electricity is a third of Vermont's total
energy sector. Heating and transportation, both more heavily
dependent on fossil fuels, account for the other
two-thirds. The state energy analyst described several
possible paths to increasing total energy by five percent solely
through instate renewable power generation:
· Using large wind
only, the state would need to generate288 megawatts (MW), equal to
96 three-megawatt turbines. That is 4.6 times the capacity of the
Kingdom Community Wind project.
· Using solar
only, the state would need to generate 576 MW (5.4 square miles -
half the size of Burlington), equal to 262 2.2 MW solar
generators - the maximum size allowed under the state's "standard
offer" subsidized power program. Hopkins himself likened it
to placing slightly more than one 2.2 MW solar plant in every town,
city, and gore in Vermont.
· Using small
hydro only, the state would need to generate 173 MW, almost twice
the estimated capacity available from powering 300 of the 1200
existing dams. Hopkins noted that the federal permitting process
for small hydro can be lengthy and complex.
· Using biomass
(woodchips) only, the state would need to generate 139 MW, which
would require an additional 1.1 million tons of fuel per year. At
present, Vermont now uses 1.5 million tons/year total.
Dr. Hopkins noted that the expected reduced demand through
conservation will cancel out the projected annual growth in demand
for electricity. There is a notable exception: when demand for
electricity rises by one-third due to the transition to plug-in
electric vehicles. Energy conservation can't keep up with a power
demand spike of that size. At that point, Vermont's power supply
would need a real boost.
Vermonters know, more than we knew several years ago, the
challenges that wind and solar projects present. We are developing
opinions of a future of renewable power, based on our actual
experience. Dr. Hopkins' scenarios may help some of us inform those
opinions. Knowing what we know, do we want five more Lowell
Mountain wind projects, or solar farms everywhere, or hundreds more
small dams, or heavier harvesting of woodlands in and around
Vermont? Or an energy buffet of smaller servings of "all of the
above?" For others, the answer might be "none of the above."
Two years ago there was just a single ridgeline wind facility,
now there are four. Solar power production on rooftop homes, on
large buildings, and in pastures are on the rise. Plug-in car
registrations grew 57% in 2012, but only to 188 in total.
Can we build (and afford) enough renewable power? If we can, do
we want to? These are questions that Vermonters will continue to
debate. But with the help of Dr. Hopkins' illustrations, at least
we can better understand what the finished work might look
like.
